{"id":235,"date":"2025-08-29T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goodly.com.tw\/blog\/?p=235"},"modified":"2025-08-29T12:04:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T04:04:25","slug":"losing-double-bet-trap-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goodly.com.tw\/blog\/losing-double-bet-trap-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 AT99\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u300c\u8f38\u4e86\u624d\u60f3\u52a0\u78bc\u300d\u5fc3\u7406\u9677\u9631\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u300c\u8f38\u4e86\u624d\u60f3\u52a0\u78bc\u300d\u9019\u9ebc\u5e38\u898b\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f60\u4e00\u5b9a\u807d\u904e\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\uff1a\u300c\u5dee\u4e00\u9ede\u5c31\u8d0f\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e2d\uff01\u300d \u9019\u5c31\u662f\u7d93\u5178\u7684\u73a9\u5bb6\u5fc3\u614b\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u9019\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4f60\u300c\u610f\u5fd7\u529b\u4e0d\u5920\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u5927\u8166\u7684\u5929\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u88e1\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u53eb\u505a <strong>\u300c\u640d\u5931\u53ad\u60e1\u300d<\/strong>\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/zh-tw\/%E6%8D%9F%E5%A4%B1%E8%A7%84%E9%81%BF\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Loss Aversion<\/a>\uff09\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u5c0d\u300c\u5931\u53bb\u300d\u7684\u611f\u53d7\uff0c\u9060\u6bd4\u300c\u5f97\u5230\u300d\u7684\u5feb\u6a02\u66f4\u5f37\u70c8\u3002\u8209\u4f8b\uff1a\u8f38\u6389 100 \u5143\u7684\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u6703\u6bd4\u8d0f\u5230 100 \u5143\u7684\u5feb\u6a02\u66f4\u660e\u986f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u7576\u4f60\u5728 AT99\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce \u8f38\u4e86\u4e00\u9ede\u6642\uff0c\u8166\u888b\u5c31\u6703\u5f88\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u60f3\u88dc\u56de\u4f86\uff0c\u60f3\u7528\u300c\u52a0\u78bc\u300d\u4f86\u6e1b\u8f15\u90a3\u7a2e\u4e0d\u7518\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5fc3\u7406\u6a5f\u5236\u53eb <strong>\u300c\u8fd1\u5931\u6548\u61c9\u300d<\/strong>\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Near-miss_effect\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Near Miss Effect<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u7576\u4f60\u5dee\u4e00\u9ede\u5c31\u8d0f\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5927\u8166\u6703\u5206\u6ccc\u591a\u5df4\u80fa\uff0c\u8b93\u4f60\u89ba\u5f97\u300c\u597d\u50cf\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u5c31\u6703\u4e2d\u4e86\uff01\u300d\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u932f\u89ba\u5c31\u6703\u63a8\u8457\u4f60\u518d\u52a0\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2025 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class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u300c\u5feb\u7ffb\u672c\u4e86\u300d\u7684\u932f\u89ba<\/strong><br>\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4ee5\u70ba\u53ea\u8981\u518d\u4e0b\u4e00\u628a\u5927\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u4e00\u6b21\u8ffd\u56de\u4f86\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u904a\u6232\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u6a5f\u7387\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u4fdd\u8b49\u54ea\u4e00\u628a\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u8d0f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u300c\u8d0f\u56de\u4f86\u624d\u505c\u624b\u300d\u7684\u627f\u8afe<\/strong><br>\u4e0d\u5c11\u73a9\u5bb6\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u81ea\u5df1\uff1a\u300c\u53ea\u8981\u8d0f\u56de\u525b\u525b\u8f38\u7684\u5c31\u597d\uff01\u300d\u7d50\u679c\u5e38\u5e38\u8d8a\u9677\u8d8a\u6df1\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8d0f\u56de\u4f86\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5fc3\u614b\u65e9\u5c31\u88ab\u62c9\u626f\u5230\u5f88\u7dca\u7e43\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u300c\u60c5\u7dd2\u63a5\u7ba1\u7406\u6027\u300d\u7684\u72c0\u614b<\/strong><br>\u7576\u8f38\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u5fc3\u60c5\u8b8a\u5f97\u7126\u8e81\uff0c\u7406\u667a\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u60c5\u7dd2\u84cb\u904e\u53bb\u3002\u9019\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u8aaa\u597d\u53ea\u662f\u5a1b\u6a02\u7684\u5c0f\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8b8a\u6210\u58d3\u529b\u4f86\u6e90\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AT99\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u5c0f\u7de8\u7684\u8cbc\u5fc3\u63d0\u9192\uff1a\u73a9\u904a\u6232\u8981\u61c2\u5f97\u300c\u6536\u653e\u81ea\u5982\u300d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>AT99\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce \u4e00\u76f4\u5f37\u8abf\uff1a<strong>\u5a1b\u6a02\u70ba\u4e3b\uff0c\u5feb\u6a02\u6700\u91cd\u8981<\/strong>\u3002\u6211\u5011\u77e5\u9053\u5927\u5bb6\u4f86\u9019\u88e1\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u653e\u9b06\u3001\u4eab\u53d7\u6a02\u8da3\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8b93\u81ea\u5df1\u7126\u616e\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5c0f\u7de8\u4f86\u5206\u4eab\u5e7e\u500b\u8d85\u5be6\u7528\u7684\u5c0f\u6280\u5de7\uff0c\u8b93\u4f60\u5728\u73a9\u904a\u6232\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u6700\u4f73\u72c0\u614b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. 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<strong>\u300c\u751f\u6d3b\u88e1\u7684\u5c0f\u78ba\u5e78\u300d<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u58d3\u529b\u4f86\u6e90\u3002<br>\u6211\u5011\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u904a\u6232\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u5f88\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u80fd\u9577\u4e45\u4eab\u53d7\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u61c2\u5f97\u62ff\u634f\u7bc0\u594f\u7684\u73a9\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AT99\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce \u4e5f\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u512a\u5316\u5e73\u53f0\u9ad4\u9a57\uff0c\u5f9e\u904a\u6232\u4ecb\u9762\u7684\u6d41\u66a2\u5ea6\u5230\u652f\u4ed8\u5b89\u5168\u6027\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u8b93\u4f60\u73a9\u5f97\u5b89\u5fc3\u53c8\u958b\u5fc3\u3002\u800c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u6211\u5011\u5728\u610f\u4f60\u7684\u5fc3\u60c5\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u6bcf\u4e00\u4f4d\u73a9\u5bb6\u90fd\u80fd\u5e36\u8457\u8f15\u9b06\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\u4f86\u73a9\uff0c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u70ba\u8f38\u8d0f\u800c\u7cfe\u7d50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7d50\u8a9e\uff1a\u61c2\u5f97\u505c\u4e0b\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u771f\u7684\u8d0f\u5bb6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u89aa\u611b\u7684\u73a9\u5bb6\u5011\uff0c\u8a18\u4f4f\u4e00\u53e5\u5c0f\u7de8\u7684\u6696\u5fc3\u63d0\u9192\uff1a<strong>\u8f38\u4e86\u60f3\u52a0\u78bc\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u662f\u4f60\u7b28\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4eba\u6027<\/strong>\u3002\u61c2\u5f97\u770b\u7a7f\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u6bd4\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u66f4\u8070\u660e\u5566\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2025 \u5e74\uff0c<a 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